Ghana’s oil revenue for 2025 faces serious risks as the World Bank projects a sharp drop in global crude oil prices. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank warns that oil prices could average $64 per barrel, significantly lower than the $74 per barrel price used in Ghana’s 2025 national budget.
This gap raises doubts about Ghana’s target of generating over $1 billion in oil revenue this year. The government’s revenue forecast depends heavily on crude oil exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity markets.
According to the World Bank, weakening global economic growth and rising supply are expected to lower oil prices by about 12% in 2025. This is part of a broader decline in commodity prices, with more than half expected to fall by over 10% during the year.
Ghana’s oil revenue is a critical component of its national budget, and a price drop could lead to budget shortfalls, spending cuts, or increased borrowing. The World Bank also cautions that lower commodity prices may slow economic growth and raise inflation risks for developing countries like Ghana.
However, the Bank also notes potential upside risks. Geopolitical tensions, especially in oil-producing regions, or extreme weather events could disrupt supplies and push prices higher.
To stay on track, Ghana may need to adjust its budget assumptions, diversify revenue streams, and strengthen economic resilience in the face of global market volatility.
